Are We in the Midst of Another Space Race? China’s Lunar Ambitions Make it Likely

All eyes were on Artemis II during this Easter, as the four astronauts aboard the spacecraft completed the historic lunar flyby. It is the latest step in NASA’s ambitious Artemis mission to return people to the Moon’s surface by 2028. While the United States rejoices in another success, the space race has come alive again as China plans to send its first crew to the lunar surface by 2030.

In February, the China Manned Spaceflight Agency (CMSA) launched Mengzhou on its first crewless test flight to test its abort system and its detachment from the rocket. China intends to send several astronauts to the Moon aboard the ‘dream vessel’, or Mengzhou (in Mandarin), on a Long March 10 rocket. A separate rocket will carry the lunar lander, Lanyue, which will meet Mengzhou in lunar orbit. It can carry up to seven astronauts to low Earth orbit, but will house just three to the Moon.

An uncrewed Mengzhou craft is set to launch on its first test mission to China’s orbiting Tiangong space station later this year. Quentin Parker, director of the Laboratory for Space Research at the University of Hong Kong, says that the spacecraft is poised for the test. More test flights are expected before a lunar landing is attempted in 2030, but China has not yet revealed the details of those missions.

Since 2007, China has launched a series of robotic missions to the Moon. In just five years, from 2019 to 2024, they landed on the Moon’s far side and brought back lunar samples. On the other hand, NASA had originally planned to land on the Moon back in 2024, but the lander—either SpaceX’s Starship or Blue Origin’s Blue Moon—was not yet ready. Both are still in development, and there is still a good chance the schedule will slip beyond 2028. Parker acknowledges that China is good at meeting its timelines, making the race to the Moon come down to the wire.

China might choose a location near the Moon’s equator for its first Moon landing in 2030. The surface here is flatter and safer for a craft to land. They have shortlisted 14 landing sites, one of which is an ancient volcanic region called Rimae Bode, slightly north of the Moon’s equator. Jun Huang, a planetary scientist at the China University of Geosciences in Wuhan, and his team published an analysis of the location’s geology in March.

Huang speculates that landing at Rimae Bode would be a detailed glimpse into lunar history because the site is thought to have material from the deep lunar mantle and debris from asteroid impacts. The site holds answers to questions about the birth and evolution of the Moon and the Earth.

Both China and the USA hope to land on the Moon’s south pole, an area that might contain the raw materials needed for rocket fuel—ice. The hope is that the ice could be split into hydrogen and oxygen, both of which are needed to fuel rockets.

The last space race lasted two decades and began with the Soviet Union’s (now, Russia) launch of Sputnik 1, the first artificial satellite, into orbit. They are not far behind in this space race either, as China hopes to build a permanent Moon base with Russia, called the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), in the 2030s. They prioritize lunar geology and astronomy research, among other goals, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) said last year.

NASA, too, announced plans to build a lunar base last month. Bhavya Lal, a policy analyst at the RAND School of Public Policy and a former NASA associate administrator, notes that the competition with China seems to have taken the political spotlight in creating the base. Long-term commitment needed to build the facility, however, seems to have taken a back seat.

The US has long been vocal about its intentions to beat China for a crewed mission to the Moon. In February, NASA administrator Jared Isaacman said that the agency faced “credible competition from our greatest geopolitical adversary” and needed to “move faster, eliminate delays and achieve our objectives”. Notably, Jared is also the first non-professional astronaut to have conducted a spacewalk, which he did in September of 2024.

China does not aspire to be the first but is more focused on establishing a permanent presence there—a strategic high ground, points out Namrata Goswami, a space-security researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Alabama. They have a genuine intent to pursue scientific exploration and reject the idea of a Cold War-esque space race. National pride and prestige do not distract them from their research goals, claims Parker.

The nation highlighted deep-space exploration as a key goal in its latest five-year plan. In contrast, the White House proposes slashing NASA’s overall budget for fiscal year 2027, despite funding human spaceflight programs like Artemis. The margins are really tight, the stakes are high, but what we really need right now is a victory for science.

May the Science be with you!