Utah’s Great Salt Lake, the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere, is drying up at an alarming rate. In 2022, it hit its lowest recorded water level since measurements began in 1847, setting off alarm bells for scientists, environmentalists, and local communities. More than just a shrinking body of water, its decline threatens wildlife, air quality, regional agriculture, and Utah’s billion-dollar economy. But what’s driving this dramatic transformation?
A new study by Portland State University and Oregon State University, published in Geophysical Research Letters, reveals that two major factors are responsible: reduced water inflow from rivers and streams, and rising temperatures that accelerate evaporation.
The Great Salt Lake is more than just a geographical landmark—it’s a lifeline for the region. It supports millions of migratory birds, fuels Utah’s $1.9 billion economy, and even enhances snowfall in the Wasatch Mountains, boosting the state’s winter sports industry. But over the years, human water consumption and climate change have disrupted this delicate balance, leaving the lake at risk of collapse.
Historically, the lake’s water levels have fluctuated dramatically. In 1963, it reached its previous lowest level, only to experience massive flooding in the 1980s due to heavy rains and snowmelt. In 1987, water levels were so high that officials pumped excess water into the desert to protect surrounding communities. But today, the lake faces the opposite crisis—a vanishing shoreline and a rising environmental disaster.
Scientists have identified reduced river inflow as the primary reason behind the lake’s decline, accounting for nearly three times more water loss than evaporation. However, while decreased streamflow is the dominant factor, researchers found that the lake would not have reached its record low in 2022 without the added impact of warming temperatures increasing evaporation rates.
“The contribution from warming to evaporation is significant,” said Paul Loikith, Director of PSU’s Climate Science Lab. “Without the warming trend, 2022 wouldn’t have been record low. Even though streamflow is dominant, the increase in evaporation was necessary to reach the record low.”
Interestingly, rainfall had little effect on water levels, meaning that even occasional wet seasons won’t be enough to counteract the long-term decline.
To pinpoint the causes behind the lake’s shrinking waters, researchers built a mathematical model tracking three key variables: river inflow, direct rainfall over the lake, and evaporation rates. By running simulations, they determined that while lower streamflow was the biggest contributor, rising temperatures played a critical role in pushing the lake to its historic low.
This discovery creates a complex challenge for future predictions. On one hand, as the lake shrinks, there’s less surface area for evaporation—a natural self-limiting factor. On the other hand, higher temperatures are expected to accelerate water loss. The interaction between these forces makes forecasting future lake levels increasingly difficult.
The disappearance of the Great Salt Lake isn’t just an ecological disaster—it’s a human crisis, too. As the water recedes, the exposed lakebed releases toxic dust into the air, creating potential health risks for the 1.2 million residents of Salt Lake City. Additionally, the loss of snow-enhancing effects could threaten Utah’s famous ski industry, which relies on lake-generated snowfall.
“As the lake shrinks, it’s exposing this dry lakebed that could possibly increase dust events into the metropolitan area, affecting the air quality for nearby residents,” adds Siiri Bigalke, co-lead author of the study.
The study does offer a glimmer of hope—scientists found that when river flows increase, the lake can recover relatively quickly. This means that with better water management, restoration is possible. However, striking a balance between human water consumption and maintaining the lake’s ecological health remains a major challenge, especially with rising temperatures intensifying the crisis.
With Salt Lake City set to host the 2034 Winter Olympics, the Great Salt Lake will undoubtedly be a symbolic centerpiece of the event. But the real question is: how much of it will remain by then?
The Great Salt Lake is on the verge of an environmental catastrophe, driven by human intervention and climate change. While researchers have identified the key causes, the fate of the lake rests in our hands. Without urgent action to restore water inflow and address rising temperatures, the region faces a future of dust storms, dwindling water resources, and economic losses. Whether Utah can save its iconic lake before it’s too late remains an open question—one with consequences far beyond its shores.
For more details, read the full study in Geophysical Research Letters
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